# Summary: Which Adjustment Channels Respond to Demographics Within Monetary Unions?

| Section | Sample | Channel (DV) | Z_1 | p-value | Sig | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA_Components | EMU | ca_gdp | -247.269 | 0.000 | *** | 399 |
| CA_Components | EMU | trade_balance_gdp | -232.816 | 0.000 | *** | 384 |
| CA_Components | EMU | primary_income_gdp | 26.473 | 0.409 |  | 384 |
| CA_Components | EMU | secondary_income_gdp | 15.590 | 0.008 | *** | 384 |
| CA_Components | EMU | si_gap | -255.009 | 0.000 | *** | 399 |
| CA_Components | EMU | non_si_residual | 11.778 | 0.644 |  | 399 |
| CA_Components | CFA | ca_gdp | 95.168 | 0.051 | * | 730 |
| CA_Components | CFA | trade_balance_gdp | 71.955 | 0.428 |  | 583 |
| CA_Components | CFA | primary_income_gdp | -26.535 | 0.123 |  | 583 |
| CA_Components | CFA | secondary_income_gdp | 14.072 | 0.402 |  | 583 |
| CA_Components | CFA | si_gap | -144.410 | 0.000 | *** | 712 |
| CA_Components | CFA | non_si_residual | 124.616 | 0.000 | *** | 712 |
| CA_Components | OECD_Float | ca_gdp | -43.745 | 0.189 |  | 659 |
| CA_Components | OECD_Float | trade_balance_gdp | -50.587 | 0.186 |  | 510 |
| CA_Components | OECD_Float | primary_income_gdp | 12.653 | 0.683 |  | 510 |
| CA_Components | OECD_Float | secondary_income_gdp | -0.648 | 0.916 |  | 510 |
| CA_Components | OECD_Float | si_gap | -73.149 | 0.027 | ** | 659 |
| CA_Components | OECD_Float | non_si_residual | 23.430 | 0.319 |  | 659 |
| S_vs_I | EMU | gross_savings_gdp | -5.218 | 0.864 |  | 399 |
| S_vs_I | EMU | gross_investment_gdp | 171.086 | 0.000 | *** | 399 |
| S_vs_I | EMU | savings_investment_gap | -255.009 | 0.000 | *** | 399 |
| S_vs_I | CFA | gross_savings_gdp | -63.008 | 0.209 |  | 712 |
| S_vs_I | CFA | gross_investment_gdp | 100.835 | 0.060 | * | 712 |
| S_vs_I | CFA | savings_investment_gap | -144.410 | 0.000 | *** | 712 |
| S_vs_I | OECD_Float | gross_savings_gdp | -12.382 | 0.666 |  | 659 |
| S_vs_I | OECD_Float | gross_investment_gdp | 10.182 | 0.676 |  | 659 |
| S_vs_I | OECD_Float | savings_investment_gap | -73.149 | 0.027 | ** | 659 |
| Bilateral | signed_dZ | log_portfolio_total | -6.262 | 0.046 | ** | 6916 |
| Bilateral | signed_dZ | log_portfolio_debt | -8.775 | 0.002 | *** | 6612 |
| Bilateral | signed_dZ | log_portfolio_equity | -4.292 | 0.312 |  | 5853 |
| Bilateral | signed_dZ | log_fdi_outward | -1.392 | 0.682 |  | 4505 |
| Bilateral | abs_dZ | log_portfolio_total | 1.783 | 0.082 | * | 6916 |
| Bilateral | abs_dZ | log_portfolio_debt | 1.629 | 0.100 |  | 6612 |
| Bilateral | abs_dZ | log_portfolio_equity | 0.616 | 0.623 |  | 5853 |
| Bilateral | abs_dZ | log_fdi_outward | 0.278 | 0.768 |  | 4505 |
| Bilateral | oecd_comparison | log_portfolio_total | -10.548 | 0.008 | *** | 8100 |
| Bilateral | oecd_comparison | log_portfolio_debt | -4.669 | 0.245 |  | 6958 |
| Bilateral | oecd_comparison | log_portfolio_equity | -12.951 | 0.004 | *** | 7287 |
| Bilateral | oecd_comparison | log_fdi_outward | -1.251 | 0.736 |  | 4514 |
| Fiscal | EMU | fiscal_bal_gdp | 1.507 | 0.946 |  | 399 |
| Fiscal | EMU | ca_gdp | -247.421 | 0.000 | *** | 399 |
| Fiscal | EMU | ca_gdp | -247.269 | 0.000 | *** | 399 |
| Fiscal | EMU | ca_gdp | 4.211 | 0.876 |  | 399 |
| Fiscal | CFA | fiscal_bal_gdp | -53.258 | 0.041 | ** | 732 |
| Fiscal | CFA | ca_gdp | 78.179 | 0.049 | ** | 915 |
| Fiscal | CFA | ca_gdp | 95.168 | 0.051 | * | 730 |
| Fiscal | CFA | ca_gdp | 73.402 | 0.005 | *** | 712 |
| Competitiveness | EMU | rgdp_growth_dev | -0.810 | 0.943 |  | 477 |
| Competitiveness | EMU | inflation_dev | 6.831 | 0.320 |  | 477 |
| Competitiveness | EMU | productivity_growth_dev | 0.399 | 0.969 |  | 477 |
| Competitiveness | CFA | rgdp_growth_dev | -55.064 | 0.038 | ** | 791 |
| Competitiveness | CFA | inflation_dev | 1.247 | 0.889 |  | 791 |
| Competitiveness | CFA | productivity_growth_dev | 24.351 | 0.265 |  | 791 |
| Competitiveness | EMU | ca_dev | -224.978 | 0.000 | *** | 477 |
| Competitiveness | EMU | ca_dev | -225.655 | 0.000 | *** | 477 |
| Gross_Positions | EMU | gross_assets_gdp | -2307.274 | 0.503 |  | 399 |
| Gross_Positions | EMU | gross_liab_gdp | -2559.095 | 0.455 |  | 399 |
| Gross_Positions | EMU | debt_assets_gdp | -1695.975 | 0.048 | ** | 399 |
| Gross_Positions | EMU | debt_liab_gdp | -2198.747 | 0.004 | *** | 399 |
| Gross_Positions | EMU | port_eq_assets_gdp | -701.541 | 0.341 |  | 399 |
| Gross_Positions | EMU | fdi_assets_gdp | 1938.439 | 0.606 |  | 399 |
| Gross_Positions | EMU | fdi_liab_gdp | 1279.200 | 0.630 |  | 399 |
| Gross_Positions | EMU | fx_reserves_gdp | -13.531 | 0.381 |  | 399 |
| Gross_Positions | OECD_Float | gross_assets_gdp | -254.939 | 0.662 |  | 659 |
| Gross_Positions | OECD_Float | gross_liab_gdp | 69.983 | 0.915 |  | 659 |
| Gross_Positions | OECD_Float | debt_assets_gdp | -308.885 | 0.297 |  | 659 |
| Gross_Positions | OECD_Float | debt_liab_gdp | -84.831 | 0.855 |  | 659 |
| Gross_Positions | OECD_Float | port_eq_assets_gdp | 163.880 | 0.349 |  | 659 |
| Gross_Positions | OECD_Float | fdi_assets_gdp | -49.442 | 0.821 |  | 659 |
| Gross_Positions | OECD_Float | fdi_liab_gdp | 159.325 | 0.479 |  | 659 |
| Gross_Positions | OECD_Float | fx_reserves_gdp | -22.278 | 0.777 |  | 659 |

*Notes: Z_1 coefficients from within-union PanelGLS regressions. Positive Z_1 on CA means aging demographics → surplus; negative means aging → deficit. The question is which specific channels carry this effect.*
*\*p<0.1, \*\*p<0.05, \*\*\*p<0.01*
